BREAKING DOWN WESTERN CONFERENCE MYTHS

You have read all of the Western Conference season previews on the sporty websites.  To sum up, there is no way the Lakers don’t finish number one, but they will be challenged by only the Spurs, the Blazers and maybe the Nuggets.  The remaining 4 seeds for the playoffs are some mix of the Hornets, the Mavs, the Jazz and the Suns or Clippers.  The fact that the experts are in such agreement about the playoff seedings, makes me think that they are completely off in their prognostications.  Things are never that clear cut, especially in the wild, wild West.  But here is my view of the Western Conference, and I will be debunking myths on every team along the way.

Artest doesn’t make the Lakers better, but he won’t even be the Lakers’ biggest problem.

Dallas Mavericks-  

The Mavs will make the playoffs as the 6th seed and they have some talent.  But when you have 10% of the league’s players on your roster, some of them are bound to be good.  Don’t the Mavericks still have like 26 players on their roster right now?

Mr. Dampier, please make yourself comfortable on the bench.

Myth:  Adding Shawn Marion will make this team better.

I’m not even going to mention that Marion has dipped in production the last few seasons.  The Mavericks now have Nowitzki, Gooden, Marion, Dampier, Josh Howard, and Tim Thomas all vying for minutes at the 3-5 positions.  They all combined to play 174 minutes last season and by my math, there will be about 140 minutes to split between these guys if all are healthy.  Someone’s minutes are going to get pinched.  The Mavs will counter this by playing Nowitzki more minutes at Center.  But the Mavs were at their best when they had Avery Johnson instilling defense into their identities.  This season they will be a watered down version of the run and gun Suns from 3 or 4 seasons ago.  That ought to be good for a first round exit in the playoffs. 

Denver Nuggets-

The Nuggets will be part of the greatest division race of the season with the Trailblazers and Jazz.  They will lose out, however and be the 5th seed in the West.

Myth: The Nuggets won’t miss Linas Kleiza and Dahntay Jones. 

The Nuggets are one injury away from any of their starters to missing the playoffs completely.  They may be forced to start JR Smith at shooting guard, a player who gave them such a lift off the bench last season.  But even without injuries, they will have to hope that each of their players can duplicate last season’s success and it is hard to imagine that Nene, Kenyon Martin, and a year-older Chauncey Billups will all play 70 + games. 

Golden State Warriors-

This team would probably be more entertaining on a reality TV show this season then on the court.  It’s too bad, too, because they have talent.  But they will be the 12 best team in the West.

Myth: Anthony Randolph is the player that will breakout this season.

Stephen Jackson is going to get traded at some point this season.  And when he does, Anthony Morrow will be there to pick up several of his minutes.  He is a volume scorer and may not do much else, but from a statistical and fantasy standpoint, it will be Morrow and not Randolph who has a breakout season.

Houston Rockets-

I wouldn’t want to face this team, even without Tracy McGrady or Yao Ming.  If the Rockets had Kyle Lowry, Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes on the floor at the same time, they might be able to hold opponents to about 50 points.  The problem is that they could only score 45.  But they will be better than most people expect and will vie for the playoffs until April.

Myth: Tracy McGrady won’t get back to his superstar play.

The biggest problem that Tracy McGrady has had in Houston, besides his health, is being able to share the limelight appropriately with a bigger superstar in Yao Ming.  But when McGrady comes back from injury after the all-star break, there will be no questioning McGrady when he takes over the offense single-handedly.  This team will look a lot like the NBA finalist 76er team that played great defense and let Allen Iverson do his thing on offense.  McGrady will do his thing and he will do it well.

LA Clippers-

The Clippers have had a great offseason, absolutely stealing Butler from the Hornets.

Everyone’s darlings to make the leap to the playoffs this season.  I agree that they will be improved, but they will be the last team left out.  And if they win the draft lottery again, I will launch a full investigation.

Myth: Blake Griffin was the most important edition to the team.

Don’t get me wrong; landing Blake Griffin was huge for this franchise and he will probably be the ROY.  But the Clippers already had some talented bigs last season.  They struggled at the wings, with Eric Gordon as their only real contributor last season.  But Rasual Butler and even Kareem Rush will give them much needed depth at the 2 and 3 positions.  Griffin might be the most talented addition, but Butler might be a more important addition, especially if he can take all of Ricky Davis’ minutes.

Los Angeles Lakers-

I agree.  Fine, they are going to be the number one seed in the West.  But that doesn’t mean they will repeat as champs.  And they aren’t as good as last season.

Myth: This team got better during the offseason.

Artest is a better player than Trevor Ariza in a vacuum or one on one.  But Ariza is better for the Lakers.  You have heard the arguments about this issue and at this point, you either agree or disagree.  So here are two other reasons the Lakers aren’t as good as last year’s team.  1) Derek Fisher and Shannon Brown are still the point guards 2) The Lakers have expectations.  Fisher isn’t good enough to start for a championship team and if you expect Shannon Brown to have the same playoffs he did last year, then you are sadly mistaken.  The Lakers got lucky when they had to face the only team in the East without a great point guard.  If Jameer Nelson is healthy for that series, I think the Magic win.  But the bigger distraction for the Lakers is going to be meeting the expectations of repeating and also trying to win 73 games besting the Chicago Bulls mark.  The last few teams that attempted that record didn’t fare too well in the first round of the playoffs.  Just ask the 2007 Dallas Mavericks or the 2008 Celtics.

Memphis Grizzlies-

Would the addition of a guy like Stoudemire push Memphis to the playoffs?

The Grizzlies cursed themselves when they sold their soul (Pau Gasol) for Rock n’ Roll (my nickname for Marc Gasol).  And let’s be honest, they deserve to be cursed for that move.  Ticket sales will increase, but they finish 13th in the West.

Myth: The Memphis Grizzlies are cellar dwellers in the West. 

Unlike other teams that are going to miss the playoffs, the Grizzlies have talent, a lottery pick and cap space.  They are going to get a nice pick in the loaded 2010 draft and have the cap space to be the only big money spenders for one free agent this offseason.  If they landed a guy like Amare Stoudemire, or outbid Boston for Rajon Rondo, I could see this team challenging for the playoffs as soon as next season.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Is it a problem when point guards make up for 40 % of your roster?  The Pesky Timberwolves will finish 14th in the West this year, but would be contenders in the 6 foot 4 and under league.

Myth: GM David Kahn personally made this year’s draft picks and free agent signings. 

When the T-Wolves drafted Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio back to back it had a lot of people scratching their heads.  But what happened is that Kahn had Rubio and Flynn on his best player board and in his drafting queue.  After Kahn drafted Rubio he got up to make a sandwich and the draft clock ran out so he automatically drafted the next player in his queue which was Jonny Flynn. 

New Orleans Hornets

I feel bad for the fans of New Orleans.  First their city gets flooded and then the owner of their NBA team wastes the talent of their point guard by being way too fiscally conservative.  They are lucky they got something back for Tyson Chandler after he was sent back to them by the Thunder.  At least they have the Saints, because the Hornets are finishing 6th in the West.

Myth: The Hornets made a good move when they traded Omeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler.

Even if Okafor is an upgrade, he is like going from a macbook to a macbook pro.  It may be a little better, but probably not worth the extra money.  But more importantly, the Hornets needed an upgrade at the wing positions much more than the center spot.  How do I know that?  Because the Hornets will have Morris Peterson and Julian Wright as their starters on opening night.  At least the Jazz won’t have the weakest starting wings in the playoffs this year.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Now that the Detroit Shock are moving to Tulsa, it will be fun to see which team can draw the bigger crowd…and which team Robert Swift has a better chance playing for.  Thunder will be improved, but still be 11th in the West.

Myth:  Kevin Durant will win the scoring title.

I love Kevin Durant as a basketball player and I thank my lucky stars everyday that the Blazers didn’t take him over Oden.  But I think he struggles this season improving his game.  Until he adds some pounds to his frame and starts attacking the basket more often, he will plateau as a scorer.  Twenty-five points a game is nothing to sneeze at, but I think he only ups his average to about 26.5 and finishes in fourth place behind Wade, James, and Amare Stoudemire.

Phoenix Suns

What could have been?  If the Suns had access to a time machine, they would be the first to go back and fix the several mistakes that prevented them from a championship or two.  But instead, we see the product of about a dozen bad decisions by Steve Kerr and Robert Sarver.  It will be fun to watch this mistake play basketball, but it isn’t going to produce the magic that could have been.  They will make the playoffs though and scare one first round opponent.

Myth: You need a fully functioning retina to play great basketball.

Amare Stoudemire is going to have his best season to date stats-wise.  He is going to eclipse the 30 points per game mark and double digit rebounds and finish 3rd in the MVP voting.  The run-n-gun style is back, Shaq is gone and the table is set for Amare to thrive, goggles and all.

Portland Trailblazers

The Michelle Wie of the NBA.  Okay, that’s too harsh.  But I would like to see them win a playoff series before they are crowned the next big thing.  I think they cave into the pressure enough to take second place in the division, 4th overall.

Myth: Getting Andre Miller for only 7 million a year, was a low price, low risk signing.

That is the type of description I heard about Miller when he was signed.  But guess what: the risk of disrupting team chemistry is a big one and it looks like the Miller signing has done just that for the time being.  They are too talented to let it affect them greatly, but the Miller signing is going to turn out to be a disaster.  The Blazers need a point guard who will play defense, space the floor and hit open threes.  Miller doesn’t really do any of those things.  He is like a less-talented version of Brandon Roy, so playing them together is almost impossible.  I can’t describe how happy I am that the Blazers whiffed on acquiring Kirk Hinrich and settled for Andre Miller.

Sacramento Kings

On a positive note, they are the preseason favorites to acquire the chance to draft John Wall in the 2010 NBA draft.  He would be a really good fit for them too.  Ladies and Gentlemen, the team that will finish with the worst overall record!

Myth: Tyreke Evans was a good draft pick for them.

The Kings needed a true point guard and left a couple of them on the draft board by taking combo guard, Evans.  That’s like using two top 10 picks in a row to draft point guards…oh wait.  But even if Evans turns out to be a nice player, this is the beginning of the end to the Kings’ best and really only good player, Kevin Martin.  Good luck playing side by side with Evans.  Nothing against Evans, it is just an unnecessary duplicate, like playing Ron Artest and Tracy McGrady together…oh wait.  Rubio or Flynn would have been a better choice.

San Antonio Spurs

Like the Saw movies, this franchise just keeps rehashing old stories every October, but still turns out to be a success every year.  They will keep bringing the heat and finish 2nd in the West, just like many predict.

Myth:  The Spurs will make the Western Conference Finals. 

The Spurs are in a catch-22.  They are no longer talented enough to put the regular season in cruise control and clean up in the playoffs.  But they are also not young enough anymore to give it their all for 100 games a season.  Last season they realized that they need some home court advantage to win in the playoffs.  So they will have the second best record, but their age (8 of their 10 best players are going to be 30 or older this season) will catch up with them and they will sputter in the playoffs.

Fact:  Tim Duncan is the only the 3rd oldest bigman on the Spurs.  They are dinosaurs.

Utah Jazz

This is the year that the Jazz take people by surprise.  They are being overlooked and will sneak up on teams, they are as talented as ever and they are dedicated, at least for now, on defense.  Could be a special season.  They will finally claim the 3rd seed.

Myth: This Jazz team plays Jerry Sloan type basketball.

This has been, up to this point, one of the softest Jazz teams.  They are too talented to have been playing defense and road games the way they have the last 3 or 4 seasons.  They need to actually adopt the persona of their head coach and play hard nosed if they want to be elite.  But if they win a couple extra road games and play just a smidgeon of better defense, the 3 seed is attainable.